Will Wednesday’s inflation report show inflation rising once again?

The Cleveland Fed’s Inflation Nowcast suggests that it it will, with the latest print projecting just over 2.4% year on year for the Consumer Price Index headline inflation, and over 2.8% for core inflation.

Month on month, the nowcast is projecting 0.12% for headline inflation, with the core inflation projection printing at 0.22%.

Corporate media’s “experts” are also predicting consumer price inflation will rise in May.

US consumers probably saw slightly faster inflation in May, notably for merchandise, as companies gradually pass along higher import duties.

Prices of goods and services, excluding volatile food and energy costs, rose 0.3% in May, the most in four months, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists. In April, the so-called core consumer price index climbed 0.2%.

President Trump has had a good run of beating expectations on inflation even as he has pressed US trading partners hard with reciprocal, even retaliatory tariffs (and, in the case of China, punitive tariffs).

Will May be the month his run comes to an end? Wednesday morning we will know.

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